Kritische Online-AG “Neue Kriege”

Die Weltbank hat zum G8-Gipfel eine Studie zur Nahrungsmittelkrise vorgelegt. Zahlreiche Gründe werden für die steigenden Preise genannt, darunter die Förderung von Biotreibstoffen in USA und EU, steigende Preise für Öl und Dünger sowie Exportrestriktionen insbesondere in Indien.

Zu zahlreichen einzelnen Ländern im Mittleren Osten, Afrika und Asien finden sich Zahlen und werden Hintergründe angerissen. Die Auswirkungen im globalen Maßstab werden wie folgt beschrieben:

Preliminary estimates suggest that up to 105 million people could become poor due to rising food prices alone. A recent World Bank study in eight countries estimates that the increase in food prices between 2005 and 2007 increased poverty by 3 percentage points on average. Extrapolating these results globally suggests that, as a result of the rise in food prices, total world poverty may have increased by 73 million to 105 million people (lower and upper bounds depend on assumptions on the extent to which world prices are passed through to local prices – see Annex 2 for more details). Results from recent simulations suggest that the food price crisis could lead to close to 30 million additional persons falling into poverty in Africa alone…
In Liberia, the cost of the food basket for a typical household increased by 25% in January alone. As a result the poverty rate has risen from 64% to over 70%. In Yemen, the doubling of the price of wheat and bread has resulted in a 12% loss in real income of the poor. Such setbacks may reverse the gains made in reducing poverty over the last seven years. In Honduras, the rise in food prices is estimated to have increased poverty by four percentage points from 51% to 55%, while in Sierra Leone the food crisis has raised poverty by 3 percentage points, to 69%. In Djibouti, the increase in food prices over the past three years is estimated to have led to an increase in extreme poverty from 40% to 54% (See Annex 2 for more country-specific impacts)…
Recent increases in food prices in Bangladesh have not only increased poverty, but also raised the Gini index of inequality by five percent. This is due to the benefit that larger farmers accrue relative to smaller farmers and to the urban poor. Similarly, the effective rate of inflation faced by the poor in Latin America is 3 percentage points more than the official rate (see Annex 2) implying that rich-poor gaps are widening.6 In Vietnam, while a significant number of those close to the poverty line are net sellers of rice and benefit from rising prices, the poorest in rural areas benefit least and those in urban areas are worst affected.7 As a result, inequality across and within regions in Vietnam is likely to increase. The complexity of poverty and distributional impacts of rising food prices warns against sweeping, ‘onesize fits all’ responses…
Even stable, high growth countries are not immune to the damaging effect of escalating food prices on child malnutrition.

IRINNews fasst hier die Diskussion um die Ursachen, wie sie auch von der Weltbank geführt wird etwas knapper und verständlicher zusammen. Die Welbank ihrerseits erhebt zahlreiche Forderungen, was nun zu tun sei, die ich weder im einzelnen noch insgesamt bewerten kann. IRINNews geht an anderer Stelle insbesondere auf die von der FAO unterstützte Forderung ein, per UN-Resolution den Staaten Zölle und Exportbeschränkungen für humanitäre Lebensmittelexporte, also solche, die für arme Bevölkerungen vorgesehen sind, zu untersagen. Klingt erstmal logisch und sinnvoll. Auf der anderen Seite werden den Staaten damit wieder Spielräume für “eigene Sozialpolitik” genommen und diese an globale Planungsorganisationen übertragen.